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30,000 troops out of Iraq this fall?

A key lawmaker said Tuesday that he expects the U.S. Central Command to propose in September an immediate 30,000-troop reduction in the number of U.S. forces in Iraq because of growing belief that the so-called “surge” strategy is working.

Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., the defense appropriations subcommittee chairman who made the prediction, said that does not mean that he believes the situation in Iraq is improving, but that an increasing number of White House and Pentagon officials and Republican lawmakers returning from visits to Iraq are all talking about success.

There are about 160,000 U.S. troops in Iraq today. A 30,000-person cut would leave troops at the pre-surge level.

If anything, Murtha said that new problems are arising, such as concerns that the new mine-resistant assault vehicles — which are being hurriedly built to provide better protection for deployed troops against increasingly powerful roadside bombs — do not appear to fit into ships. Murtha said it appears that the so-called MRAP vehicles must be delivered instead by air at a cost of $1.2 billion.

Murtha said he had hoped the House would schedule a vote this week on an Iraq withdrawal plan, but that vote was put off until fall when House Republicans appeared reluctant to support the legislation. House Democratic leaders saw little reason to schedule a vote unless a substantial number of Republicans broke with the White House and demanded the start of withdrawal of combat troops.

While there could be a vote in the fall, Murtha said he has come to believe that a substantial number of Republican lawmakers will not support legislation ordering a withdrawal from Iraq until after the Republican primaries next year.