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Officials consider options if drawdown halts

Should a “pause” of unknown duration be ordered in the drawdown of U.S. troops from Iraq, military planners are looking at all possibilities to extend an over-extended force this summer — to include activating more National Guard and reserve units.

“I don’t think there are any options that are necessarily off the table,” said Army Lt. Gen. Carter Ham, the Joint Chiefs’ director for operations, during a Friday afternoon news conference at the Pentagon.

No pause has yet been announced, and until recently, officials had said President Bush would wait until he has heard the recommendations of Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, as well as those of Central Command chief Adm. William Fallon, Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, the other Joint Chiefs and Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Petraeus will meet with the chiefs, Gates, Bush and Congress sometime in April.

But a pause now seems likely. In early January, Bush, recounting a Jan. 12 meeting with Petraeus in Kuwait, said he told the general: “If you want to slow her down, fine; it’s up to you.”

Bush said he also told Petraeus that any decision the general recommended “needs to be based upon success.”

In late January, The Washington Post quoted Petraeus’ then-No. 2, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, as saying: “I believe there should be a period of assessment.” And Gates told reporters in Iraq on Feb. 11 that a pause “makes sense.”

The force in Iraq is in the process of drawing down to a level of about 132,000 troops by mid-July — roughly the number there before Bush sent 28,000 troops to quell insurgent violence in an effort that has been judged to date as successful. The next brigade combat team will come out in March and three more will follow at roughly six-week intervals, Ham said Friday.

Three National Guard brigade combat teams currently serve in Iraq, along with a number of reserve component support units, according to Army spokesman Paul Boyce.

Still to be determined, Ham said, is the makeup of the force should a pause be ordered.

“That’s what the commanders are wrestling with ... tour length, the force posture, the mix of active and reserve component forces, all of those are being considered,” Ham said.

Officials must consider the estimated length of any pause, Ham said. The U.S. assessment of the capabilities of the Iraqi Security Forces from region to region is another, as is the level of insurgent activity. Political progress and the pace of reconstruction are vital, all officials agree.

In terms of Iraq, military leaders have to “weigh that right balance between a force posture sufficient to sustain the security gains that have been achieved ... over the past year of the surge ... but still seek to transition the security responsibility to the Iraqi Security Forces,” Ham said. “That’s the delicate balance those commanders have to wrestle with.”

At the same time, noted Marine Corps Lt. Gen. John Sattler, the director for strategic plans and policy on the Joint Staff, military leaders have competing interests that must be reconciled. While Petraeus is concerned with Iraq, Sattler said, Fallon must assess force needs across the Middle East, while Gates and the Joint Chiefs worry about the overall health of the military and global defense requirements.

“There are multiple points ... and all are being looked at,” Sattler said.

Army troops continue to serve 15-month tours in Iraq and Afghanistan; Army chief of staff Gen. George Casey said in January that he hopes to shorten the highly demanding tours this summer.