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Pause in Iraq troop drawdowns looks likely

It could be as little as six to nine months before the Army crosses what its top officer calls the “invisible red line” and the pace of the war begins reducing its overall effectiveness, the Joint Chiefs chairman indicated Friday.

And while the Army-heavy force in Iraq continues to draw down slightly, it now seems likely that there will a pause of unknown duration following the ongoing drawdown of five brigade combat teams that could exacerbate that stress.

The chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, said during a Pentagon press conference Friday that Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey has talked about the strain on the Army — on families as well as troops — in terms of crossing an “invisible red line.” Casey has told Congress that the war has stretched the Army so thin that it could not now respond “as rapidly as necessary” to another conflict.

During meetings earlier this week, when U.S. combatant commanders and the Joint Chiefs met at the Pentagon with senior Defense Department leaders, Mullen said Casey reiterated what he’s said publicly about the need to reduce the Army’s 15-month combat tours back to 12 months and to increase the time troops spend back home as soon as possible.

“And one of our goals as far as stress on the force is concerned is to not cross that line,” Mullen said. “And it’s very difficult to determine exactly where that is.”

Mullen said leaders and planners, while focused on winning the war, are trying to strike what he called a “very delicate balance” between supporting operations and damaging the force. “And I don’t see that balance changing ... over the next six, eight, nine, 10 months at this point. I think it’s too early to say that.”

Mullen added that Marine Commandant Gen. James Conway, noting the recent order to deploy 3,200 Marines to Afghanistan, said during the meetings that, if such force requirements continue, “the pressure on his force that could have been relieved” will remain. Officials have said the requirements will not continue.

Mullen said both generals said they were “very committed” to continuing to meet the wars’ force demands.

However, Mullen said the long-acknowledged strain the wars have put on the two services wasn’t discussed in terms of how a pause in drawdowns might exacerbate that strain — a pause that seems all but announced.

Bush sent five brigade combat teams to Iraq beginning last winter in a “surge” aimed at quelling persistent violence and allowing the young Iraqi government to make political progress.

Last fall, Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, told Congress he had recommended President Bush draw down the force to pre-surge levels and that more reductions would follow, but that “it would be premature to make recommendations on the pace of such reductions at this time.” The overall level of violence had started to fall, and Bush decided to start bringing home the same number of troops he’d sent over.

Meanwhile, the violence levels continued to fall through the end of 2007, seemingly justifying the move. Late in the year, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he hoped to see the drawdown continue at a similar pace during the second half of 2008.

But violence spiked during January. Thirty-nine U.S. troops died that month, an increase of 16 over the previous month and the most since 65 troops died in September, according to the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, an independent group that tracks the data. In addition, 554 Iraqi Security Force personnel died, roughly the same number as the previous two months. Four hundred eight-five Iraqi civilians died in January as a result of the war, also roughly tracking the previous two months, the group said.

Earlier this month, Bush, recounting a Jan. 12 meeting with Petraeus in Kuwait, said he would let Petraeus’ recommendation guide any decision on a continued drawdown. And, he told reporters, “I said to the General, if you want to slow her down, fine; it’s up to you.” He said he also told Petraeus that “any decision he recommends needs to be based upon success.”

The Washington Post this week quoted Petraeus’s second-in-command, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, as saying, “I believe there should be a period of assessment.”

Mullen said that nothing’s been decided yet, but underlined the “conditions on the ground” mantra and said a decision would be premature. “It’s February,” Mullen said, noting that Petraeus will not return to Washington to deliver his six-month follow-up to his September testimony until late March or early April.

“Conditions on the ground will, of course, continue to remain an important factor,” Mullen said. He quickly added, “Today’s bombing in Baghdad, which took nearly 70 lives, is a stark reminder of that.” He was referring to Friday’s two suicide bombings in Baghdad markets.

“To the best of my knowledge, neither he nor Ambassador Crocker have made any specific recommendations about future force levels in Iraq,” Mullen said. “They’re working it, thinking about it, and that’s their job.”

In addition to hearing out Petraeus, Bush will also consider assessments by Central Command and the Joint Chiefs, Mullen said.