Army News, news from Iraq, - Army Times

Post-drawdown troop levels will still be high

When the current drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq is complete in July, about 140,000 should remain, a senior U.S. military official said Monday — 8,000 more than were present at the January 2007 start of the administration’s “surge” of five brigade combat teams aimed at helping stabilize Iraq.

Those 8,000 troops represent a sort of safety margin for U.S. ground commanders as they assess the U.S. ability to handle security demands across Iraq, such as backing up U.S. Provincial Reconstruction Teams and Iraqi forces, with five fewer combat units on hand, said Lt. Gen. Carter Ham, the Joint Staff’s director for operations.

“You want to make sure that you can reinforce those very, very quickly,” Ham told reporters at the Pentagon. So even while the U.S. draws down ground troop levels, for instance, commanders will continue to require more aviation assets, he said.

Trying to determine the proper mix of forces is one of the reasons why Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander on the ground in Iraq, has asked for a period of assessment after the current drawdown is finished before recommending additional troop cuts, Ham said.

U.S. officials also project that about 32,000 U.S. troops will be stationed in Afghanistan “by late summer,” Ham said. That would be the highest level ever — an increase of about 4,000 troops over the current level. Most of these will come from the 3,200 additional Marines being deployed there this spring, he said.

Both figures, however, are estimates that will depend on security conditions on the ground, Ham said.

“These force posture levels truly are conditions-based, and driven by the mission requirements and the assessment of commanders on the ground,” Ham said.

Ham said it would be “premature” to say whether the Army will be able to reduce its current 15-month combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan to 12 months once this initial drawdown is complete, as Army officials hope.

“That’s being studied very, very hard by the commanders on the ground, by the Army staff, led by Gen. [George] Casey here, and by Joint Forces Command,” Ham said. Additional factors include other global demands for troops and the need to get the overall force revitalized, he said.

U.S. commanders say Iraqi Security Forces are becoming increasingly more numerous and capable but still require support, Ham said. Requirements include such “enabling” capabilities as command-and-control headquarters and logistics, aviation and detainee operations — elements that were part of the surge in addition to the five brigade combat teams that were deployed.

For instance, there’s been no reduction in the need for military police, he said.

“The transfer of responsibility for detention operations has not progressed as rapidly as we would like ... so there’s a need to have that force sustained as well,” Ham said.