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Iraq future hinges on several factors

WASHINGTON — With U.S. forces trickling out of Iraq, the Bush administration is touting 2008 as a year of major transition and improvement.

Just as it did 2003, ‘04, ‘05, ‘06 and ‘07.

For all the cynicism about the war — now entering its sixth year — it has undeniably turned a corner. Violence is down, and political reconciliation among the Iraqis is advancing, albeit haltingly.

The question now is whether Iraqis can build toward sustainable improvement so U.S. troop levels can come down significantly.

“Can you get the Iraqi forces to really take over?” said Anthony Cordesman, a military expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, just back from Iraq. “Can you find ways to move money and services in for governance and development?”

Or will Iraq again tumble into a familiar pattern of violence punctuated by exhaustion and rearming as it did after the fall of Baghdad in 2003, the Shiite rebellion in 2004, the violence that followed Iraq’s first election in 2005 or the sectarian civil war of 2006 and ‘07?

Here’s what some of the leading experts are watching as they assess where the Iraq campaign is headed and what’s in store for U.S. troops there.

Petraeus, Crocker report

Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, and Ryan Crocker, the ambassador there, are scheduled to deliver a much-anticipated second report to President Bush and Congress this spring. They will discuss how the now yearlong troop surge is going, future troop levels and Iraq’s progress toward competent self-governance.

Their first report in September changed the dialogue on the war.

Petraeus’ insistence that the surge was working, backed by undeniable statistics, put war opponents on their heels and laid the groundwork for a successful defense of the war in the Senate in the months that followed. Citing Petraeus, the Republican minority thwarted about 40 votes aimed at ending or shortening the war.

Barring any major spikes in violence, Petraeus and Crocker are expected to reaffirm the success of the surge this spring.

Petraeus has suggested he will recommend halting the withdrawal of some of the surge troops to ensure the hard-won security gains are not lost.

War opponents are already preparing for rebuttal, but they face two men of considerable credibility.

Troop fatigue

This summer, the Army is expected to announce it will cut combat deployments from 15 to 12 months.

Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey recently told lawmakers the anticipated halt in the withdrawal of surge troops shouldn’t affect that.

But the Army is clearly exhausted from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Combat decorated captains and majors, poised for stellar military careers, are leaving the force in large numbers while suicides have hit alarming levels.

Another major outbreak of violence in Iraq could further strain an Army already starting to buckle.

“The cumulative effects of the last six years of war have left our Army out of balance, consumed by the current fight and unable to do the things we know we need to,” Casey testified.

Iran

Top Army generals report that as the violence in Iraq has subsided, neighboring Iran has lowered its profile in the war.

The Shiite nation had been supplying Iraq’s Shiite militias with advanced explosives and other weapons, but that has trailed off for the time being.

Still, Iran remains a powerful military and political force across Iraq’s Shiite-dominated southern provinces. It could easily become a major problem for U.S. forces at any time.

Reconciliation, rebuilding

The purpose of the troop surge was to give Iraq’s fractious political constituencies breathing room to negotiate.

The plan was for this to happen top-down, but the opposite occurred. Local tribal leaders have been striking security and economic deals on their own. Oil revenue is being shared without an overarching agreement. And some of the critical national legislation has passed, albeit years behind schedule.

But this is all very tenuous. If it starts to break down, security could go with it.

Reconstruction has not gone well, by any account.

Americans and Iraqis have spent $100 billion on rebuilding, but output in critical areas such as water and electricity supply remain at or below pre-war levels, according to the U.S. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction. Projects remain half finished. Money vanishes.

Cease-fires

The drop in violence is in large part the result of two major movements among the warring Shiites and Sunnis.

Seven months ago, radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his fearsome militia to lay down arms, and several weeks ago, he called for a six-month extension.

Some of the top Sunni tribal leaders, meanwhile, have turned away from the insurgency and sided with Iraqi and U.S. forces in hopes of earning a legitimate place in the new Iraq.

If either of these tenuous developments crumbles, experts fear, it would likely take the other with it.

At that point, U.S. forces would find themselves back where they were a year ago — in the middle of a Sunni-Shiite civil war.

DISCUSS: What’s the critical factor?