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Afghan fighting may prompt tour switches

Almost as steadily as hostilities in Iraq have declined in recent months, violence in Afghanistan has intensified, making it a deadlier place for U.S. troops and redoubling calls to send more soldiers into the fight that since 2003 has been largely overshadowed by the war in Iraq.

A sophisticated July 13 attack that killed nine U.S. soldiers in Wanat, Afghanistan, underscored the fierce fighting that troops in that country have faced even while the world’s attention focused on Iraq.

Since May, the number of U.S. casualties in Afghanistan has hit the same level as those killed in Iraq, even though there are about four times as many American service members in Iraq as in Afghanistan. As of mid-July, the U.S. death toll in Afghanistan for that month was three times that of Iraq.

“We are clearly working very hard to see if there are opportunities to send additional forces [to Afghanistan] sooner rather than later,” said Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who gave a briefing July 16 at the Pentagon alongside Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

An Army official said the service is drafting plans to move additional soldiers to Afghanistan, where nearly 25,000 are now serving, and that would require diverting them from scheduled Iraq rotations.

That option could gain momentum as the ebb in violence continues in Iraq and Pentagon leaders authorize a drawdown in forces there that some officials said could begin in the fall.

“We have been working these plans [for additional troops in Afghanistan],” said a senior Army planner, “but ... what is being contemplated is if it is possible to draw down forces in [Operation Iraqi Freedom] in the fall, and that’s a big if, then [brigade combat teams] and other forces currently scheduled to deploy to OIF would instead deploy to [Operation Enduring Freedom].”

Reducing the number of troops required in Iraq is the “only way, today,” for the Army to send more BCTs to Afghanistan, said the planner, who spoke on the condition that he not be identified.

“You cannot talk about adding troops to OEF without taking them out of OIF,” he said.

Iraq’s fragile gains

There are 13 BCTs in Iraq and two in Afghanistan, now that the surge of five brigades sent in early 2007 to help tamp down violence in Baghdad has ended.

About 105,800 soldiers are in Iraq; 24,800 soldiers are in Afghanistan.

Senior Pentagon leaders warned that any reduction in troops in Iraq must be done cautiously.

The gains in Iraq are not “irreversible,” Mullen said during the July 16 briefing, but security there is “unquestionably and remarkably better.”

No decisions or recommendations have been made about Afghanistan, Gates said, adding that commanders on the ground are looking at ways to reposition the forces they have and other options.

“In Afghanistan, as I expected, the fight remains tough and complicated,” Mullen said. “One need look no further than the well-coordinated attack on the Wanat outpost ... to see that the enemy in Afghanistan has grown bolder, more sophisticated and more diverse.”

Mullen, who recently returned from a trip to Afghanistan, added that the country’s porous border with Pakistan has contributed to the increase in violence.

The more sophisticated group of enemy fighters has been able to “train in a safer environment in the safe havens in Pakistan,” he said. “It has become a significant contribution, and it’s the freedom of movement across that border. The increase in violence is tied certainly to that.”

Commanders in Afghanistan have told him they need more troops, Mullen said. He didn’t discuss what the commanders told him, but senior military leaders have said they would like two to three more BCTs, including a brigade’s worth of trainers to work with the Afghan army and police, in Afghanistan.

“It’s a tougher fight,” Mullen said. “It’s a more complex fight, and they need more troops to have the long-term impact that we all want to have there.”

Leaders at the Pentagon continue to assess the situation and search for possible solutions, Mullen said.

“That really is in the planning and options phase more than anything else,” he said.

Deployment lengths

One thing Gates said he has sought assurances on is the length of soldiers’ deployments.

Gates said commanders are not considering deployments that are longer than 12 months, as the active Army prepares to ditch 15-month tours and return to 12-month tours beginning Aug. 1.

However, as long as the demand for troops stays the same across the Central Command area of operations, soldiers should not expect to see more time at home. If anything, Army officials said, they should prepare for the possibility that they’ll be sent to Afghanistan although their original orders have them slated for Iraq.

“They’ve told us to be prepared to switch forces if Gen. [David] Petraeus [commander of Multi-National Force-Iraq] comes in and says he’s ready to draw down in Iraq,” the Army planner said. “But that drawdown won’t be in the form of, ‘OK, you go home early.’ It’ll probably be in the form of, ‘You don’t backfill that guy [in Iraq] ... but now you go to Afghanistan.’”

More than 21,000 soldiers in seven active Army BCTs are slated to deploy to Iraq this fall. In addition, 18,000 more soldiers — three active Army BCTs and one Army National Guard brigade — are to go in the spring.

Although Army and Defense Department officials would not discuss specifics, it’s possible that some of these troops could be “re-missioned,” as the planner termed it, and sent to Afghanistan instead.

The brigades scheduled for Iraq in the fall are:

• 2nd Brigade, 4th Infantry Division, Fort Carson, Colo.

• 3rd Brigade, 25th Infantry Division, Schofield Barracks, Hawaii.

• 2nd Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, Fort Riley, Kan.

• 3rd Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division, Fort Bragg, N.C.

• 172nd Infantry Brigade, Schweinfurt, Germany.

• 3rd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas.

• 1st Stryker Brigade, 25th Infantry Division, Fort Wainwright, Alaska.

BCTs slated for Iraq in the spring are:

• 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood.

• 2nd BCT, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood.

• 3rd BCT, 10th Mountain Division, Fort Drum, N.Y.

• 56th Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 28th Infantry Division, Pennsylvania National Guard.

In addition to soldiers in BCTs, almost half of all deployed soldiers belong to units known as “enablers,” such as division headquarters, sustainment brigades, engineer brigades, combat aviation brigades, military police brigades and military transition teams. These soldiers also could be affected by a shift in troops from Iraq to Afghanistan.

War-weary soldiers — serving multiple combat tours is now common — who hope for more time at home will not see relief for a while if military leaders follow through with the push to send more soldiers to Afghanistan, the senior Army planner said.

“[Soldiers] won’t get more dwell time with a drawdown in OIF,” he said. “They will instead deploy to OEF about the same time they were scheduled to deploy to OIF.”

Advance notice

If units are indeed diverted from Iraq to Afghanistan, they need to know as soon as possible so that equipping and training can be modified to support a deployment to a different location, the planner said.

“The goal for us is, you get re-missioned as soon as possible so that you get as much advance notice that you’re going to Afghanistan instead of the month before you go to Iraq you get told you’re going to Afghanistan,” he said.

Soldiers should not have much trouble transitioning from preparing for an Iraq deployment to a tour in Afghanistan, said Command Sgt. Maj. Joseph Montour, the top enlisted soldier for 2nd BCT, 10th Mountain Division.

“The mind-set is already there,” he said. “The mind-set is, ‘I’m going to deploy.’ The question is, ‘Where am I going to deploy to?’ [With that mind-set], they’ll be able to be mentally prepared when their brigade commander gets them together and says, ‘The focus has shifted. We’re now going to Afghanistan.‘“

Montour, who has deployed twice to Iraq and once to Afghanistan, said the rugged terrain in Afghanistan could be one of the biggest challenges for soldiers.

“If you’re going to be operating in Afghanistan, you’re going to be operating at 3,000 to 9,000 feet,” he said. “At 9,000 feet, cardio is a must because your oxygen intake is much greater [and] your heart rate is higher. You’re not driving vehicles at 9,000 feet. You’re walking.”

Isolation is another factor, Montour said.

“You could have platoons in outlying areas that are literally separated by 25 to 35 kilometers,” he said. “Unless the command makes the effort to get out and physically get out on the ground, talk with the soldiers, see what the soldiers are doing, see what living conditions the soldiers have, you’re never going to know [how they’re doing].”

The enemy in Afghanistan tends to test the Americans, and they use a lot of small-unit tactics, Montour said.

“Initially they will hit you from far-out distances,” he said. “They want to see what your capabilities are, and for the most part they know what you’re capable of doing. In some areas they may know how long it takes to get air support and the fight will last for minutes, and in some places they may know that you can’t get air support and the fight will last a long time.”

The Army’s plan to grow to an active-duty end strength of 547,000 by the end of 2010 and to have 48 BCTs, five more than now are in the force, will provide only minor relief to soldiers, the senior Army planner said, adding that war planners are already working on rotations for fiscal 2010.

However, if the demand for BCTs remains the same — 15 in the Central Command area of operations, which includes Iraq and Afghanistan — and conditions overseas allow it, BCTs that come home in fiscal years 2009 and 2010 should receive more than 12 months of dwell time, the senior planner said.

For BCTs returning to their home stations in fiscal 2009, five are planned to receive more than 18 months of dwell time, six are planned for 15 to 18 months of dwell and five others are scheduled to have between 12 and 15 months at home, the planner said.

Among the units coming home in fiscal 2010, seven BCTs will receive 18 or more months at home, three will receive 15 to 18 months of dwell and seven will be home for fewer than 15 months.

In fiscal 2009, the active Army will have 19 light, 18 heavy and six Stryker BCTs on hand. Those numbers will grow to 23 light, 19 heavy and six Strykers — for a total of 48 BCTs — on hand in 2012, he said.

“The bottom line is that demand for Army forces will not decrease over the next several years, in my opinion,” he said. “The only thing that will change is the location of their deployments.”