Economic bust creates recruiting boom - Army News | News from Afghanistan & Iraq - Army Times

Economic bust creates recruiting boom

A lousy economy’s precise effect on retention is difficult to measure. But there’s no question about its impact on recruiting.

The numbers don’t lie. In the early 1980s, researchers found that the unemployment rate had a significant effect on the military’s ability to reach recruiting goals for high school graduates, as long as military pay keeps pace with civilian wages. Pentagon officials say that hasn’t changed.

“We do benefit when things look less positive in civil society,” said David S.C. Chu, undersecretary for personnel and readiness, during an October news conference on recruiting and retention in the fiscal year that just ended. “People are willing to listen to us. ... What difficult economic times give us, I think, is an opening to make our case to people who we might not otherwise have. And if we make our case, I think we can be successful.”

Given the current state of the U.S. economy — the unemployment rate was at 6.7 percent in November, with 533,000 jobs lost, and rising — and given other factors, such as a marked decrease in the overall wartime casualty rates, military recruiters should be enjoying a seller’s market.

So far, they are. All four active services have met 100 percent of their recruiting goals during the first two months of the new fiscal year. And the Army and Marine Corps, carrying the brunt of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, are off to very hot starts. The Army brought in 101 percent and 106 percent of its October and November goals, respectively, while Marine recruiters enlisted 104 percent and 105 percent.

The six reserve components are doing just as well — all were at or above 100 percent of their goal for October and November, the Pentagon said.

Of equal or greater concern than the raw numbers, however, is the quality of recruits. And the jury’s still out in fiscal 2009’s early stages on whether the services, particularly the Army, are signing up enough of the smartest recruits and minimizing the number of enlistees for whom official waivers are required.

Numerous studies show that high education levels, Armed Forces Qualification Test scores and experience all correlate to productivity and flexibility in service, according to Steve Kosiak of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Recruits with high school diplomas are far more likely to complete their first terms and perform better down the road.

High school graduates with AFQT scores above the 50th percentile are considered to be “high-quality” enlistees.

In fiscal 2008, the Army recruited 101 percent of its overall goal. But the service missed the Pentagon’s 90 percent benchmark for high school diploma-holders, bringing in 83 percent. The other three services exceeded that figure, with the Navy leading all services at 94 percent.

Economists say there’s a direct correlation between the economy and recruit quality. John Warner and Curtis Simon of Clemson University estimate that a 10 percent increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 3 percent to 4 percent increase in high-quality enlistment. Another study suggests a 5 percent increase, Warner said.