Army News, news from Iraq, - Army Times

Pentagon: Critical issues unresolved in Iraq

Although far more U.S. troops are serving in Iraq than in Afghanistan, nearly all the military-related chatter as a new administration prepares to take office seems to focus on the way ahead in the landlocked Central Asian nation that spawned the Taliban and al-Qaida — so much so that a casual observer might be forgiven for thinking that the Iraq war is yesterday’s news and that the coming drawdown there means all is well.

Not so fast.

President-elect Barack Obama has made clear his intention to end the war in Iraq, which he has said shifted U.S. attention away from the search for terrorist Osama bin Laden, and beef up and refocus the 7½-year war in Afghanistan. The Pentagon plans to eventually roughly double the 32,000 U.S. troops there now and bring the total NATO force up to near 100,000.

But despite a sharp downturn in overall violence and U.S. troop deaths in Iraq, Iraq’s passage of key legislation and a strategic agreement with the U.S., improvements in the size and capability of its security forces, the continuing handoff of provincial responsibility to the Iraq Security Forces and other positive signs, the Pentagon is far from declaring victory.

Rather, in its latest quarterly report to Congress, the Pentagon warns that many “security gains in Iraq remain fragile and reversible, ... the underlying sources of instability in Iraq have yet to be resolved” and “a number of challenges, if mishandled, have the potential to halt or reverse progress.”

Clearly, the Dec. 4 ratification of the Strategic Framework Agreement and the Security Agreement was a major step forward in the 5½-year effort to pacify and stabilize Iraq. Given its deadlines for U.S. troop withdrawals — June 30 from major populated areas, and completely out of the country by the end of 2011 — the agreement also serves as a catalyst for more progress.

But a long list of concerns dot the report:

• Although there was a sharp decline in the overall number of civilians killed in violent acts in the quarter covered by the report, the number of deaths by assassination increased. These attacks have primarily targeted Iraqi judicial and legislative officials.

• A number of demanding challenges threaten the establishment of a solid foundation for the rule of law. Intimidation continues to hinder administration of an effective criminal justice system and is the most immediate threat to advancing the rule of law in Iraq. About 9,000 pre-trial detainees are waiting in Baghdad facilities alone to stand trial, according to the report.

• Additional challenges to security are posed by al-Qaida in Iraq and Special Group leaders’ attempts to re-ignite violence and a lack of government services and rule of law.

• The government must successfully transition the “Sons of Iraq” — former Sunni insurgents who became friendly security forces — to permanent employment, and hold provincial elections, iron out disputes over internal boundaries, including in the area around the northern city of Kirkuk, and deal with internally displaced persons and refugee returns.

• Political progress toward a unified national vision for Iraq continues to be hindered by the pursuit of ethno-sectarian agendas and disagreements over the distribution of power.

• The lack of essential services has replaced security as the most important concern in the minds of most Iraqis, many of whom are not satisfied with the quality or availability of food, clean water, electricity, sewage services and health care. Unemployment and underemployment remain high.

• Corruption in Iraq remains a significant problem and an impediment to reconstruction and stabilization.

• Iraq’s energy sector is developing capacity at a moderate pace, but although there have been improvements in 2008, the increased energy demand of Iraq’s growing population and economy continues to outpace supply.

• In addition, the report concluded that Iran “continues to pose a significant threat to Iraq’s long-term stability, territorial integrity and political independence.”

These situations have not changed much in the six weeks since the cutoff date of the new report — Nov. 30. “We see persistent evidence that there continues to be Iranian support of special groups who are trying to undermine peace and security” in both Iraq and Afghanistan, Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said Jan. 13.

That support takes the form of both weapons and training for “Special Groups,” Morrell said.

The most dangerous provinces, based on the average number of daily attacks, were Ninewa, Baghdad, Salah ad Din, Diyala, Anbar and Tamim, according to the report. Security-level incidents in Baghdad were at a five-year low, and had decreased 72 percent from the previous year.

“The data indicate that the overall level of violence has decreased, but hostile actors appear to be focusing attacks on the civilian population and are being more discriminate in how they conduct attacks,” the report said.