Crocker: Afghan war success hinges on Pakistan - Army News | News from Afghanistan & Iraq - Army Times

Crocker: Afghan war success hinges on Pakistan

FORT LEAVENWORTH, Kan. — The former top U.S. diplomat in Iraq and the Middle East said Thursday that any hopes of winning the war in Afghanistan hinge on the stability of neighboring Pakistan.

Retired Ambassador Ryan Crocker, who served in Iraq from March 2007 through February 2009, said in a lecture at Fort Leavenworth’s Command and General Staff College that the situation in Pakistan is the biggest challenge facing the U.S. administration as Americans wind down operations in Iraq.

“It’s my conviction that you cannot solve problems in Afghanistan if you have a fundamentally unstable Pakistan,” Crocker said. “Is it a failed state? I would suggest it’s not. Is there a danger of a failed state? Yes, there is.”

The United States has been fighting in Afghanistan since 2001, seeking to root out the Taliban and al-Qaida, both of which find sanctuary in the porous mountains Afghanistan shares with Pakistan. Crocker said Pakistan’s issues include fighting insurgents on three fronts and a recent agreement that placed the Swat Valley under Islamic law.

“The Pakistani military has shown itself as a cohesive element that has stepped in, some would say all too often,” Crocker said. “It is a pretty strong bulwark, I think, against state collapse. But again, repeated military interventions are not good for state development, either.”

Obama is sending additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan this year in a renewed push to establish a legitimate Afghan government and security forces. The president has invited leaders from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Washington to discuss the eroding situation.

Crocker said U.S. relations with Pakistan have been a series of peaks and valleys, but currently on good terms, especially as it relates to fighting terrorism.

He said a consistent, reliable U.S. commitment to Pakistan would be helpful in establishing stability. The United States has given Pakistan nearly $12 billion in aid since 2001 to fight terrorism, including ongoing military training.

“It’s going to be a long haul,” he said.

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton said during a hearing Thursday in Washington on Pakistan that the situation required full implementation of the administration’s new Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy. That includes benchmarks for progress and accountability, Skelton said, along with cooperation from Pakistani partners.

“Pakistan may well pose the most complex security challenge facing us today, with serious implications for U.S. national security, Afghanistan and the region,” the Missouri Democrat said.

Crocker reflected on his two years as ambassador in Iraq, saying the progress that has been made to stabilize that country. Crocker retired in March as a career ambassador, having served 37 years as an expert on the Middle East, including stints in Syria, Kuwait and Lebanon.

Crocker said it is still early in the development of Iraq’s government, military and economy, and a U.S. presence will be required for years to come.

“Anything can happen,” Crocker said.

Crocker said there are many challenges still ahead for the Iraqis, though conditions are much better than in the height of violence in 2007. He said, however, the deadly violence between rival Sunni and Shiite factions were not how the two sides historically have settled their differences.

He said the sides were less likely to return to the violence that precipitated a surge of U.S. forces, led by Gen. David Petraeus in 2007. Crocker said Iraqis face challenges establishing a democratic government, adequate security forces and rebuilding an economy decimated by war since 2003.