Outgoing chief of staff: Dangerous decade ahead - Army News | News from Afghanistan & Iraq - Army Times

Outgoing chief of staff: Dangerous decade ahead

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — As the Army emerges from a decade of war, outgoing Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey has one strong note of warning: “The war is not over.”

While Casey spoke of the need to finish well in Iraq and Afghanistan, his caution pointed toward another type of war that has just started — and one the Army rarely wins.

The nation has a history of cutting defense budgets and trimming the size of the force following a major conflict. For example, the military was cut to a size not seen since before the Korean War following Operation Desert Storm. More than 40 ships were decommissioned, which dropped the Navy below 500 battle force ships. Today, it stands at 286.

In following years, the Pentagon deactivated six Army divisions and cut more than 1,000 Air Force aircraft. The Pentagon began to close or withdraw from more than 700 bases and facilities worldwide. Weapons procurement also took a hit, as more than 100 military systems and weapon programs were cut in a two-year period.

Today, Casey urges caution that the pattern is not repeated. The Army is at the right size, he said, and cuts to manpower or equipment could hinder its ability to provide combat forces in the manner required.

“We know the budget has to come down, we know we need to be more efficient in how we execute, but we have to be very, very careful that we don’t inadvertently hollow out the force as we’re trying to reduce the resources,” he said. “I think that would be a huge, huge mistake for all of us.”

This hollowing of the force is not something that happens overnight. Casey described a call he made to former Chief of Staff Gen. Edward “Shy” Meyer, who confronted Congress in 1980 with the charge that post-Vietnam cuts had left a hollow Army.

“I said ‘Shy, what happened?’ ” Casey said. “How did the Army get hollowed out? He said what happens is it is just incremental. There is not one big thing that happens; there is not one big budget cut that happens; it’s little things that happen over a period of time.”

It would appear that the chipping away of resources has started. More than half of the money the Army is slated to get in the next decade will come in the first four years. Funding for overseas contingency operations will end in fiscal 2014, and the service’s annual budget will drop from $232 billion in 2011 to $167 billion in 2020. But Casey said this is not a catastrophic cut.

“[The 2020 budget] is still double what it was a decade ago,” he said. “And I don’t remember going around with a tin cup in 2001 looking for money. My recollection was that we had a pretty good Army in 2001.”

The question is whether those budgets will sustain further cuts. That is why Casey’s focus is on a “fundamentally changed” Army that stands at a transition point marked with “great” strategic and fiscal uncertainties.

To withstand the common post-conflict cuts — ones that are fueled by an increasing national debt — the chief said there must be concerted effort to maintain the Army’s combat edge, reconstitute the force and build on the strategic flexibility provided by the Army Force Generation model.

Maintain combat edge

Casey said it would be a mistake to underestimate the benefits and impact of a combat-seasoned force. Today’s Army “is much more suited to the challenges of the 21st century,” he said. To maintain that versatility, the modularity model must extend to equipment, training and leader development. Specifically, Casey said the return to full-spectrum training is key.

“The more we practice it, the more we’re going to inform ourselves on how we need to adapt and adjust, and it’s only going to be good.”

And an affordable modernization strategy driven by resource-informed decisions is paramount in an era of fiscal constraint. Casey admitted that acquisition core competencies “have atrophied over the last two decades.” Although this is the best-equipped Army in decades, it is not prepared for the fiscal fallout that lies ahead. As such, Casey ordered a review and overhaul of the acquisition process to make it more collaborative and resource-informed.

“We cannot afford everything,” Casey said. “We cannot resource every good idea.”

On the other hand, bringing acquisitions to a halt to save money can be catastrophic. For example, the Joint Tactical Radio System coming out next year is a necessity for modernization, Casey said. It allows units to take the network anywhere they go, and the network stands as the centerpiece of modernization. It allows a soldier anywhere on the spectrum of conflict to know where he is, where his buddy is, where the enemy is — and know that when he shoots at the enemy, he will hit him.

Lastly, maintaining the combat edge requires a commitment to resource and use the Reserve component in its current structure. Half of the Guard and reserves are combat veterans, he said.

Reconstitute the force

The Army must restore strategic flexibility in order to hedge against unexpected contingencies, and must do so without going into the available pool or affecting operations, Casey said.

Equipment must be put back into serviceable condition at the depots, then returned to units. This “absolutely essential” action will take up to three years after the conclusion of operations, Casey said. It also will serve as an indicator if things go down the wrong path.

“Once the money for that starts going away, it’s the beginning of hollowing,” he said. “I am looking at that as the canary in the mineshaft.”

Gen. Ann Dunwoody, commander of Army Materiel Command, described these as the “most challenging times I’ve ever seen, and there are probably more challenging times ahead.” But she said she chooses to see challenges as opportunities. “We can either wring our hands or roll up our sleeves,” she said. “I am rolling up my sleeves.”

So is Lt. Gen. James Pillsbury, her deputy commanding general. He is driving the change from the industrial age into the information age as AMC resets an Army that has seen no rest in 10 years. He is using such concepts as condition-based maintenance, which reduces unnecessary maintenance and saved $210 million last year on the aviation side alone. The same approach increased the life of M1A1 Abrams engines from 750 to 1,400 hours, and reduced parts and labor by 20 percent.

The Army also realigned all maintenance functions under AMC. This includes the depots, Directorate of Logistic Repairs, Field Logistics Repair Center and Fleet Management Expansion. And soldiers can expect their role in maintenance to increase in coming years.

“We truly have run a rental car company for the last five or six years,” Pillsbury said.

And reconstitution isn’t confined to equipment. It extends to soldiers to ensure they are prepared for whatever comes next.

“All of our studies tell us that it takes 24 to 36 months to recover from a one-year combat deployment,” Casey said. “It just does — we’re human.”

Part of that reconstitution includes dealing with the results of the past decade at war. More than 25,000 soldiers have been wounded, more than 8,000 badly enough to require long-term care. More than 100,000 soldiers have been diagnosed with traumatic brain injury and another 40,000 diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder. More than 30,000 soldiers have been processed through Warrior Transition Units.

“We cannot take our eye off of the ball in terms of commitment to continue to support those who have been affected by this war,” Casey said.

Deployment cycles

The Army in 2007 was granted a temporary increase in end strength to ease the operational burden placed on it. But the number of active-duty soldiers will return to 547,400 from 569,400 by the end of 2013.

In 2015 and 2016, the Pentagon will make two further cuts of 13,500 soldiers each year to bring the Army down to roughly 520,000 active-duty personnel. These cuts are based on the assumption that ground combat commitments in Afghanistan would be significantly reduced by the end of 2014, in accordance with the president’s strategy.

Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Peter Chiarelli said 520,000 is the right number, which represents a 37,000-soldier increase over the Army that existed at the start of the war. He also cautioned against the tendency to protect end strength at the expense of equipment. Instead, the Army must balance the right force size with the right equipment.

“If you rob from either side, you will have huge problems down the line,” he said.

Despite the personnel cuts, the Army will see a 1:2 deployment ratio in October, meaning soldiers will be home two years for every one year deployed. Chiarelli said a 1:3 ratio would follow, with most deployments running nine months away with 27 months at home.

This is attributable to the Army Force Generation, which Casey calls “a much more efficient and effective way to build readiness” that links resources, end strength, tempo and output. The fruit of this endeavor is seen in the Global Force Management Allocation Plan for fiscal 2012, which will allow the Army to meet expected demand with “an acceptable tempo for our soldiers” for the first time in more than five years, Casey said. And in his eyes, that 1:2 ratio is a line that must not be crossed.

“Once we are there, we need to hold ourselves to that,” Casey said. “That’s critically important to us because we cannot allow ourselves to go back and accept an Army that is not designed to yield at least one year out, two years back for the force.”

Longer stays at home will allow soldiers to train for things other than Iraq and Afghanistan.

But ultimately, the Army’s biggest battle will be fought in the nation’s capital. Recognizing this truth, Casey said his final hearing before Congress will repeat his previous warning.

“We recognize that we must be more efficient and we are working hard at that, and we’ll continue to work hard at that,” he said. “But we are at war, and this war isn’t over. So be careful. Be careful because the last thing we want to do is hollow out this Army while we’re fighting a war.”